Will there be a marketing-agency relationship in 10 years?
What the Chicago Fire can teach us about the state of advertising.
Miss O’Leary’s cow gets a bad rap. It wasn’t an errant hoof that caused the devastation of the Chicago fire. It was poor construction, crowded conditions, drought, high winds and an overwhelmed fire department. That town was destined to burn.
The agency-marketer structure is in as precarious a position as Chicago in 1870—and AI is the hapless cow.
While our work today is faster, more precise, and more spectacular, much of it has been done before. One-to-one marketing, content and personalization have existed for decades in direct mail, branded content and soap operas. Brands even compensated “influencers” back in the 18th century, when King George’s endorsement of Josiah Wedgwood launched his dinnerware. We’re not as innovative as we’d like to think. And this lays the kindling for a blaze.
But AI won’t be the arsonist.
The risks: dry tinder and gusty winds
In-housing erodes agencies’ scopes, fees and relevance. 83% of marketers now have at least some work in-house. Only a third are completely satisfied with what they’ve built. It’s not that they want to be in the ad business. They want more control, faster turnaround, less complexity and visible savings…but agencies haven’t delivered.
Sub-annual pressure. CEOs are faced with greater accountability and short-termism than any prior generation. Activist investors have gone from hecklers to kingmakers and shareholder hunger is insatiable. Quarterly financial miracles have become table stakes.
CMOs are fighting for their lives. Will there be a traditional marketing department in 10 years? 40% of Fortune 500 firms no longer have a marketing leader at the exec table (Forrester 2024). And only 27% of CEOs and CFOs say their CMOs exceed expectations (Gartner 2024).
AI didn’t create these conditions. It just adds the oxygen. With some forethought and preparation, you can fireproof yourself and your organization. Here are a few ideas:
Fireproofing Playbook
Become a growth partner, not just an ad agency. Tether every POV and recommendation to real dollars. Think “cha-ching,” not intermediary measures or awards—many Cannes winners failed to move the needle this year.
Master behavioural science. Loss-aversion, anchoring, recency bias—these aren’t buzzwords, they’re the accelerants of decision-making – both for consumers and teams.
Mind your C-E-Os. The CEO is the ultimate decision-maker. If they’re cutting resources, they’ve lost confidence in their “investment”. Find out why.
Think sprints, not marathons. Rapid hypotheses → quick learning → scale what works. Skip the long decks and endless meetings.
Embed change management. Rollouts without champions and clear processes are doomed. Map new workflows, reward early adopters—and treat each launch like a mini-merger.
AI isn’t at fault any more than Mrs. O’Leary’s cow. Listen to the signals from the C-suite. Evolve before you’re commoditized. And always focus on financial returns. Teams that master this approach set themselves apart as growth partners, not cost centers.
I’d love to hear what risks you’re facing, and some of your own fireproofing strategies.